Cifrul liberalizarii pietei de gaze ramane inca la ANRE, pana in 2018, si e greu de descifratUntil 2018, Only ANRE Has the Unbreakable Combination to Unlock the Gas Market Liberalization

Departamentul pentru Energie a suspus dezbaterii publice proiectul unei Ordonante de urgenta care prevede o serie de modificari legislative, astfel incat piata de gaze sa functioneze inca de luna viitoare. Salutam efortul Departamentului, dar el nu are aproape nici o relevanta atata vreme cat Autoritatea de Reglementare in domeniul Energiei (ANRE) nu ne spune cine, cum, de ce etc. raspunde de buna functionare a pietei in scopul obtinerii unui pret corect, al suportabilitatii consumatorilor si al sigurantei in aprovizionare.

Exista cateva elemente, in proiectul Ordonantei de urgenta, care nu prea pot fi intelese atata vreme cat ANRE nu rezolva cateva probleme ce tin de o pregatire elementara a pietei. Marea gaselnita a autoritatilor este legata de obligativitatia producatorilor si apoi a furnizorilor de a tranzactiona pe piata concurentiala o anumita cantitate de gaze, incepand chiar de luna urmatoare. Orice obligatie, pentru nerespectarea careia se impun prin lege si sanctiuni (intre 1 si 5% din valoarea veniturilor anuale), trebuie aplicata insa in contextul in care ai creat deja mecanismele functionale ale pietei, fara a mai fi nevoit sa faci compromisuri.

Or, in cazul de fata compromisul devine litera de lege. Ceea ce nu poate duce la nimic bun. Se asteapta, asadar, din partea ANRE, stabilirea cantitatii de gaze (procentul) care urmeaza a fi tranzactionate obligatoriu pe cele doua platforme existente (OPCOM si BRM), fara a se tine seama de faptul ca “obligativitatea”este grava atunci cand nu ai elementele de baza functionale ale pietei. O sa revenim la acest aspect.

Daca urmarim cu atentie ce s-a intamplat pe cele doua platforme de tranzactionare, de la aparitia lor, observam ca ofertele productorilor sunt total ignorate de catre consumatori, chiar daca pretul nu este unul foarte mare. Peste o luna, aceste oferte nu vor mai fi, sau nu vor mai depinde de strategia vanzatorului, ci de obligativitatea data de lege ca acesta sa vanda o anumita cantitate in asa zisa piata libera. Dar cine o cumpara, daca pana acuma, cel putin pe OPCOM, nu s-a incheiat nici un contract? Si ce face dupa aceea cu ea?

Desigur, Departamentul pentru Energie si ANRE spun ca vor rezolva aceasta problema atunci cand vor stabili procentul de obligativitate pentru producatori si, din martie 2015, pentru furnizori. Se vehiclueaza in acest sens procente cuprinse intre 20 si 25 %, dar chiar si 40%. Secretul, sau cheia, este inca la ANRE, care face calcule de zor pe aceasta problema.

Ideea de baza a acestei intregi povesti cu piata libera si acces nediscriminatoriu, transparenta etc. tine de mentinerea unui pret la gaze, care sa fie suportabil si pentru consumatorii industriali si pentru cei casnici. Numai ca pretul la gaze nu se formeaza exclusiv pe baza cosului (productie interna-import), cum se intampla in piata reglementata, ci si in baza cererii si ofertei, la care se adauga multele taxe controlate inca de catre ANRE. Energy-Center a demonstrat in urma unor analize obiective ca de-a lungul ultimilor 14 ani cresterea pretului gazelor nu a fost rezultatul liberalizarii, ci al actiunii autoritatilor. De ce prefera inca autoritatile sa mai aiba control pe acest pret pana in 2018 si de ce, in paralel se vorbeste de o piata libera?

“Un element neinteles inca in Romania, este legat de faptul ca orice crestere de pret determina scaderea cererii de gaze pe piata. Astfel, intr-un deceniu o crestere a pretului gazelor cu circa 100 USD/1000 mc de a determinat o scadere a consumului de gaze cu 5 mld mc. Respectiv, sunt consumatori care se gasesc in situatia imposibilitatii platii gazelor si se inchid, comuta pe un alt combustibil sau iau masuri de efcientizare a consumului. In unele cazuri, aceste masuri sunt corecte. Se ajunge insa in situatia in care sistemele de gaze pot sa ajunga intr-un „labirint al mortii”, in care inchiderea consumatorilor aferenti unei retele, fac ca aceste gaze sa se scumpeasca continuu, putand merge pana la colapsul sectorului”, am scris in urma cu cate luni. S-a schimbat ceva intre timp in aceasta problema?

Dincolo insa de pret, mecanismele pietei libere sunt cruciale in aceste momente. Am avut timp suficient la dispozitie pentru a le pune la punct, dar nu am facut-o. Dupa bunul obicei romanesc ne-am trezit sa ingrasam porcul in ziua de Ajun. Mai concret, Codul retelei de transport si distributie, fara de care nu se poate discuta sub nici un fel despre o piata libera si concurentiala este inca in curs de elaborare. S-a muncit vreo trei ani la acest Cod, iar dupa informatiile noastre, se pare ca totul a fost inutil, iar in 3 luni ANRE intentioneaza sa elaboreze un nou Cod al retelei. Si pana atunci ce dezbatem?

Va mai amintim dar alte cateva mecanisme obligatorii, fara de care piata de energie nu poate functiona asa cum, teoretic, ne dorim cu totii:

– Lipsa mecanismelor de alocare a cantitatilor;
– Lipsa codului depozitelor de inmagazinare;
– Lipsa cunoasterii capacitatilor ferme/intreruptibile/backhaul in punctele sistemelor de transport, distributie si inmagazinare;
– Lipsa operatorului de echilibrare;
– Lipsa mecanismelor de asigurare a flexibilitatii;
– Lipsa unei Case de Compensatii;
– Lipsa sistemelor de transmitere si stocare a informatilor;
– Lipsa planurilor preventive / reactive pentru situatii de urgenta;

Credem ca sunt destule, in faza aceasta. Evident, toate aceste probleme nu le regasim in Proiectul de Ordonanta de urgenta despre care aminteam la inceputul materialului nostru. Atunci despre ce piata libera discutam?The Department of Energy has launched a public debate on the draft of a Government Emergency Order that would change the law, allowing the gas market to operate as early as next month. We hail this effort, but it is almost irrelevant as long as the National Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) does not say who’s responsible for the good operation of the market, how, and why, so that a fair price results, consumers can afford it, and supply is secure.

The bill includes some elements which are difficult to understand before the elementary preparation of the market by ANRE, which has some problems to solve, yet. The big idea of authorities is to compel the producers, and subsequently also the suppliers to trade a certain amount of gas on the competitive market, starting from next month. Any obligation which’s infringement is sanctioned by law (with fines up to 5 percent of the annual revenues) must be applied, however, in a context where functional market mechanism already exist, and compromise is no longer necessary.

On the contrary, compromise becomes the rule in this case, which hardly can lead to anything good. Namely, ANRE is expected to set the amount (percent) of gas to be mandatorily traded on the two existing platforms (OPCOM and BRM, i.e. the Electricity and Gas Market Operator, and the Romanian Commodities Exchange), ignoring the seriousness of any obligation while basic prerequisites are still lacking, in terms of a functional market. We will get back to that.

A look into the history of the operations on the two trading platforms, from their very creation, shows that the consumers completely ignore the producers’ offers, even when prices are reasonable. One month from now, there will be no such offer, or they will no longer depend on the selling strategy, but rather on the legal obligation of selling a certain amount on the so-called free market. Who buys it, as no contract was closed so far, at least on OPCOM? And what does the buyer do with the gas, after purchasing it?

The Energy Department and the ANRE claim, of course, that they will settle this matter when they set the compulsory percentage for the producers, and starting from March 2015, for the suppliers, too. Figures between 20 and 25 percent, and sometimes also up to 40 percent are mentioned. The secret – or the key – is at ANRE, where frantic calculations are in progress.

The fundamental idea of this whole story of free markets, undiscriminating access and transparency is to keep an affordable price of natural gas, for both industrial and household consumers. The price, however, does not result exclusively from a pool of domestic production and imports, like on the regulated market; it is given by the supply and demand, plus the many taxes still under ANRE’s control. Energy-Center has demonstrated by objective analysis that over the last 14 years the price of gas has not increased due to liberalization; instead, it was raised by authorities’ actions. Why do these authorities prefer to keep the price under contro until 2018, while talking about a free market?

A couple of months ago, we wrote, “an element still hard to understand in Romania is that any price increase results in a demand decrease on the gas market. Indeed, $100 per 1000 cubic meters added over a decade resulted in a 5 billion cubic meters drop in consumption. This means that some consumers cannot afford the gas price and close their doors, shift to other fuels, or act to increase their efficiency. Such steps are sometimes correct. There is, however, the risk of entering a death spiral, with consumers leaving a network, and fewer consumers forcing the sellers to raise the prices, until the system collapses.”. Did anything change meanwhile?

Beyond the price, the free market mechanisms are crucial right now. There was enough time to perfect them, but we wasted it. In good Romanian tradition, we left everything till the last minute. Specifically, the transmission and distribution network Code, vital for a free and competitive market, is still in the drafting process. Three years of work on it might have been wasted, according to our sources, as ANRE intends to come up with a brand new Code within three months. What is there to debate until then?

We might add here some other lacking pieces; they are indispensable for a functional gas market, which everyone wants in theory:

– Lack of mechanisms for allocating the amounts;
– Lack of a code for the storage facilities;
– Lack of information on standing/uninterruptible/backhaul capacities in points of the transmission, distribution and storage systems;
– Lack of a balancing operator;
– Lack of mechanisms to ensure flexibility;
– Lack of a Clearing House;
– Lack of data transmission and storage systems;
– Lack of emergency prevention and response plans;

Enough for now, we’d say. Obviously, all these lacks are not filled in by the draft of the Government Emergency Order we begun with. Then what free market are we talking about?