Cu sprijinul CE, Romania se poate lansa intr-o noua aventura pe piata gazelor (I)With EC’s Support, Romania Can Embark on a New Adventure on the Gas Market (I)

Dupa ce ne-a lasat sa tragem singuri ponoasele de pe marginea proiectului Nabucco, Uniunea Europeana ne mai arunca o nada, pe care cu siguranta autoritatile de la Bucuresti au prins-o deja: CE a inclus mai multe proiecte energetice la care participa si Romania, intre care AGRI si un gazoduct pe traseul Bulgaria-Romania-Ungaria-Austria, pe o listă de 250 de „proiecte de interes comun” la nivelul UE, care pot beneficia de finantare totala de aproape 6 miliarde euro in perioda 2014-2020.

Exact ca in cazul gazoductului Nabucco, devenit azi amintire, Comisia Europeana da aripi unei initiative mai vechi a Romaniei, de a realiza o ruta de transport a gazelor naturale din zona Marii Caspice catre Europa, via Romania. De data asta vorbim insa de gaze lichefiate. Bine ar fi ca acest proiect (AGRI) sustinut vehement de presedintele Basescu sa se materializeze, numai ca, daca ne asteptam la ajutor financiar din partea Uniunii Europene (sau chiar politic), cu siguranta nu vom rezolva mare lucru.

Este suficient sa analizam pachetul de finantare pe care ni-l propune Comisia Europeana, in valoare de 5,85 miliarde euro, pentru „250 de proiecte de interes comun”, pentru ca sa ne dam seama ca este mult prea putin prin comparatie cu valoarea reala a doar doua dintre acestea: gazoductul si proiectul AGRI.

Inainte de a ne arunca cu capul inainte, cum am facut cu Nabucco, ar fi bine sa analizam situatia reala. Ne vom referi aici doar la AGRI, un proiect lansat inca de acum cinci ani. In momentul de fata suntem, se pare, tot in faza studiului de fezabilitate.

Fara prea multe iluzii

Asadar, tara noastra incearca sa intre pe piata gazelor lichefiate alaturi de Azerbaidjan, Georgia si Ungaria, intr-un proiect ce ar putea ajunge la valoarea de 4,5 miliarde de euro, numit AGRI (Azerbaidjan-Georgia-Romania Interconnection), dupa ce a esuat pe o relatie directa pe segmentul gazelor lichefiate, cu Qatarul, care este liderul mondial in domeniu. Pentru ca in afara de promisiuni, presedintele Basescu nu s-a ales cu nimic din relatia cu Qatarul, a virat ulterior mai spre nord, catre Azerbaidjan, o tara din zona Marii Caspice cu resurse foarte mari de gaze naturale. Fostul ministru al economiei, Adriean Videanu, a fost desemnat sa inceapa negocierile cu fosta republica sovietica, in vederea infiintarii unei societati mixte care ar urma sa gestioneze studiile de fezabilitate si apoi transportul gazelor lichefiate din Azerbaidjan prin Georgia si apoi pe Marea Neagra catre Constanta, de unde acestea ar urma sa fie transportate prin intermediul conductelor terestre catre Europa Centrala si de Sud.

A fost semnat memorandumul de intelegere dintre cele trei tari, carora li s-a alaturat ulterior si Ungaria, dupa care a fost pregatita licitatia pentru realizarea studiului de fezabilitate. De atunci incoace nu mai stim nimic. Toate bune si frumoase pana aici, numai ca, asa cum s-a intamplat si in cazul celorlalte proiecte in care am fost implicati, problema majora este legata de finantare. Iata ca vine acuma Comisia Europeana si ne promite ceva maruntis. Rezolva asta demararea proiectului AGRI?

In numarul viitor al publicatie noastre va vom prezenta toate demersurile facute de Romania pentru a deveni un pol de transport al gazelor lichefiate si adevaratele provocari la care trebuie sa avem un raspuns inca din aceasta faza. AGRI nu este imposibil de realizat, cum nu a fost nici Nabucco. Singuri insa, si cu sprijin declarativ, sau cu ceva maruntis de la Uniunea Europeana nu vom putea realiza nimic. Sa fim atenti cum ne cheltuim banii in proiecte si in studii de fezabilitate, caci am pierdut suficienti bani pana acum pe iluzii.

(va urma)

After it left Romania holding the bag for the Nabucco project, the EU launches another bait, and the Romanian authorities are certain to take it: the EC has included several energy projects with Romanian contribution – among other, AGRI and a gas pipeline crossing Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria – on a list of 250 ‘projects of common interest’ at EU level, which could receive full financing of almost €6bn between 2014 and 2020.

Just like it did fort the Nabucco gas pipeline, now sunk into oblivion, the European Commission boosts an older initiative for a natural gas transport route from the Caspian Sea to Europe, through Romania. This time, we’re talking about liquefied gas. It would be nice to see the materialization of this project (AGRI), strongly supported by Romania’s president, Mr. Traian Basescu, but if we are expecting financial (or even political) support from the EU, we are condemned to fail.

One look to the financing project worth €5.85bn proposed by the European Commission for the ‘250 projects of common interest’ is enough to see that it is much less than necessary for just two of them: the gas pipeline and the AGRI project.

Before diving headfirst, like we did with Nabucco, we should analyze the actual context. Let’s discuss just AGRI, a project launched five years ago. We seem to be still in the stage of the feasibility study.

Not Too Many Illusions

So Romania tries entering the GPL market, together with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Hungary, in a project who might amount to €4.5bn, called AGRI (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnection), after failing in a direct connection for GPL with Qatar, the world leader in this field. As he got only promises from the talks with Qatar, president Basescu later turned north, to Azerbaijan, a country in the Caspian Sea basin, with large reserves of natural gas. The former minister of economy, Mr. Adriean Videanu, was appointed for starting the negotiations with the former soviet country, to establish a joint venture who should have managed the feasibility studies, and subsequently the transport of the liquefied gas from Azerbaijan, through Georgia and the Black Sea, to Constanta, in Romania, from where it could be carried further through land pipelines to Central and Southern Europe.

The three countries signed a memorandum of agreement, later joined by Hungary, and the bid for the feasibility study has been prepared. Since then, no news. No news, good news, but like for the other projects involving Romania, the major issue is financing. Now the European Commission promises some small change. Will this be enough to start the AGRI project?

In the next issue of our publication, we will present all the steps taken by Romania for becoming a pole in the transport of liquefied gas, and the true challenges to face already in this phase. AGRI can be done, like Nabucco could. But not by Romania alone, and not receiving only declarations of support and little money from the EU. We should spend very carefully any more money on projects and feasibility studies, because we already lost enough betting on illusions.

(to be continued)