Marile provocari ale strategiei energetice: energia nucleara si cea regenerabilaGreat Challenges of the Energy Strategy: the Nuclear and the Renewable
Dupa frana trasa de stat in domeniul investitiilor in energia eoliana si fotovoltaica aproape nimeni nu mai vorbeste despre investitii in sectorul energetic. Ne-am culcat pe o ureche, pe motivul ca deja ne-am atins tintele de reducere a emisiilor de dioxid de carbon stabilite pentru 2020 si sustinem sus si tare ca suntem undeva aproape de pragul de 40% energie regenerabila in consum, daca luam in considerare si producerea de energie electrica din surse hidro in marile centrale.
In acelasi timp, noul ministru al Energiei, Razvan Nicolescu, a pus in dezbatere publica tema noii strategii energetice, la realizarea careia ar putea sa-si aduca contributia si specialistii romani. Ceea ce nu se spune insa este faptul ca la baza strategiei energetice trebuie sa stea obligatoriu tintele reale asumate de Romania in fata Comisiei Europene, atat in privinta energiei regenerabile cat si a reducerii de emisii de CO2, obiective ce vor fi atinse prin dezvoltarea investitiilor in energii curate si constructia reactoarelor 3 si 4 de la Cernavoda.
Cu alte cuvine, viitoarea schema de dezvoltare a sectorului energetic romanesc se bazeaza pe energia regenerabila si cea nucleara.
Tine cineva seama de aceasta raspundere asumata deja de Romania in fata Comisiei Europene? Din ceea ce se intampla in momentul de fata, cu siguranta raspunsul este negativ. In domeniul energiei regenerabile schema de sprijin a dus la distorsiuni majore, in sensul in care au explodat investitiile in eolian si fotovoltaic dar au batut pasul pe loc investitiile in biomasa sau biogaz si alte forme de energie regenerabila. Pachetul pe energie aprobat recent de guvern pentru a veni in sprijinul marilor consumatori pune o frana puternica investitorilor in eolian si fotovoltaic, dar nu ofera mari sperante altor tipuri de investitii. Este cert ca, cel putin in conjunctura actuala, investitiile in energia verde vor pierde teren sau se vor opri la nivelul actual.
Pentru cealalta componenta a strategiei asumate de Romania, adica energia nucleara, stam si mai rau. Investitia in reactoarele 3 si 4 de la Cernavoda a ramas un simplu deziderat. Foarte putini mai cred in acest proiect, pentru care Romania nu are bani, dar nici stiinta de a atrage alti investitori.
Concluzia, cele doua prioritati pentru atingerea tintelor de reducere a CO2 si pentru eficientizarea sectorului energetic sunt in aer. Va tine minte strategia energetica de aceasta realitate, ori ne vom afla inca odata in fata unor studii si prognoze rupte total de realitate?
Sa mai amintim ca tinta estimata de catre Comisia Europeana pentru Romania in cazul emisiilor de dioxid de carbon este de 29,58%, pana in 2030, in timp ce tinta la nivelul intregii Uniuni Europene este de doar 27%.Ne referim aici la procentul din consumul de energie electrica si nu la cel din productie. Optiunea nucleara este, sau a fost, argumentul forte al Romaniei atunci cand si-a stabilit respectivele obiective. Or, aceasta optiune pare un ideal din ce in ce mai imposibil de atins.
Concluzia, masurile pompieristice de stopare a avantului in domeniul investitiilor in energia regenerabila si imposibilitatea finantarii proiectelor nucleare va pune Romania intr-o pozitie extrem de dificila in contextul european. Nimeni nu anticipeaza consecintele, desi la nivel decizional se cunosc toate aceste lucruri. Va fi interesant cum va raspunde strategia energetica acestor probleme, in situatia in care la noi gandirea strategica nu are bataie pe termen mediu si lung, ci doar de azi pe maine.
After the state pulled the brake of investments in wind and solar energy, there is almost no more talk about investments in the energy sector. Everybody rests on the laurels of reaching earlier the 2020 targets for carbon dioxide emissions; we claim and proclaim that we have almost 40% of consumption covered by renewable energy, if hydro power from the big plants is included.
Meanwhile, the new Minister of Energy Razvan Nicolescu has opened the public debate on the new energy strategy, a matter where Romanian experts could also bring their input. What is left untold is that the strategy must rest on the actual targets assumed by Romania at the European Commission both for the renewable energy and for the cuts of the CO2 emissions; these goals would be achieved by investments in clean energy and by building the 3rd and 4th reactors of the Cernavoda nuclear power plant.
In other words, the future development scheme of the Romanian energy industry is based on renewable and nuclear energy.
Is anyone taking into account this commitment of Romania at the EC? As things go, the answer is definitely no. The aid scheme induced major distortions in the renewable energy sector, with investments in wind and solar power soaring, while biomass, biogas and other renewable sources were on a halt. The energy package recently passed by the government to support the big consumers has abruptly curbed the investments in those fields, without offering much hope to other. One sure thing is that, at least in the current context, investments in green energy will slow down or cease.
The case is worse for the other component of the energy strategy assumed by Romania, i.e. the nuclear. Investments in reactors 3 and 4 of Cernavoda are merely wishful thinking. Few people still believe in this project for which Romania lacks both funds and the skills for attracting other investors.
The conclusion: both targets, the CO2 cuts and the energy efficiency, are about to be missed. Will the energy strategy take this into account, or will it be just another conglomerate of completely unrealistic researches and forecasts?
Let’s mention that the target estimated by the European Commission for Romania’s carbon dioxide emissions is 29.58% before 2030, while for Europe as a whole it is only 27%. The figures refer to percentages of the energy consumption, not to the production. The nuclear option has been so far Romania’s strongest argument when these goals were set. Now it seems an ever more remote ideal.
The massive assault to suppress the investments in renewable energy and the lack of funding for the nuclear projects will place Romania in a very difficult position in European context. No one foresees the consequences, although the decision-makers know all these things. We look forward to seeing the response of the energy strategy to these issues, as around here the strategic thinking does not consider medium and long term, but merely living from day to day.