Ce se intampla cu pretul energiei pe lantul productie-piata-consumator final?What Happens to the Price of Energy Along the Chain From the Producers to the Market to the End Users?

Povara taxelor necunoscute de catre consumatori incarca pretul energiei electrice chiar mai mult decat in cazul carburantilor, unde taxarea reprezinta putin peste 50% din pretul la pompa. De ceva vreme, piata de energie din Romania inregsitreaza preturi care par a fi mai mici, prin comparatie cu anii precedenti, dar in realitate la consumatorul final factura este sensibil mai mare. S-a spus ca liberalizarea totala a pietei, incepand cu 2014, pentru consumatorii persoane juridice si etapizat pana in 2018, pentru consumatorii persoane fizice va creste factura cu doar cateva procente, pe fondul unei cereri din ce in ce mai scazute si a unei productii care depaseste cererea. Nimeni nu se intreaba insa, ce se va intampla in situatia unei inversari a trendului si in ce masura tendintele actuale pot reprezenta un reper pentru producatori, furnizori, cunsumatori.

In acest articol vom incerca sa punem in evidenta pozitia celor care participa la piata de energie, conform Legii 123/2102, precum si opinia operatorului de piata (OPCOM), parti intre care au aparut mai nou divergente majore. Sa revenim insa la pret, asa cum il percep consumatorii. Certificatele verzi acordate producatorilor de energie regenerabila si taxa de cogenerare sunt principalele elemente invocate atunci cand se vorbeste despre preturile ridicate ale energiei electrice la consumatorul final. Pe langa acestea insa, statul, sau reglementatorul introduc in costuri taxe suplimentare, care luate una peste alta depasesc de departe influentele negative amintite mai sus. Pe de alta parte, tranzactiile realizate de platforma OPCOM ne ofera niste repere care, pe de o parte par pozitive, pe de alta parte par a anunta vremuri dificile.

Intr-un comunicat al Asociatiei Furnizorilor de Energie Electrica din Romania (AFEER) se spune ca barierele introduse de Legea energiei si gazelor au facut ca “migrarea tranzactiilor de pe termen lung pe termen foarte scurt (peste 30% din consumul intern reprezentand circa 65% din piata concurentiala) sa conduca la inexistenta unui pret de referinta pe piata angro si imposibilitatea ofertarii unui pret corect la consumatorul final”. Atentie, se vorbeste in premiera de un pret de referinta si un pret corect.

Ce sa inteleaga consumatorul roman, industrial sau casnic, din asta? Greu de spus. In replica la pozitia AFEER, directorul general al OPCOM (platforma de tranzactionare a energie electrice la care sunt obligati sa participe toti actorii actului comercial), domnul Victor Ionescu, spune ca aceste argumente sunt individuale, particulare etc, si ca “in afara progreselor si a modului in care bursa de energie sprijina tranzactiile, totusi, ramanem ancorati in elemente care nu au legatura cu realitatea”. “Exista o stare de nemultumire legata de faptul ca incepand cu anul 2014 vor exista tarife diferentiate”, mai spune domnul Victor Ionescu, facand referire la intrarea in functiune a platformei de tranzactionare OTC. Pana sa ajungem insa acolo, argumentele operatorului de piata in fata unor nemultumiri venite din partea furnizorilor si care au legatura cu pretul arata cam asa:

In urma intrarii in vigoare a Legii 123, in speta a acelor prevederi care obliga participantii la piata sa incheie toate contractele numai pe platofrmele OPCOM, Piata pentru Ziua Urmatoare (PZU) se va situa la sfarsitul acestui an undeva la 30% din total consum, cu 33% mai mult decat in anul precedent. Ce inseamna asta? Exact ceea ce furnizorii contesta, adica stabilirea unui pret de referinta la energia electrica, pe piata SPOT, pret care este deja luat in considerare si de catre alte burse de energie din Europa.

Pe de alta parte, OPCOM infirma si ipoteza conform careia nu se incheie contracte pe termen lung pe platformele de tranzactionare, argumentand ca pana in momentul de fata au fost incheiate deja contracte pentru anul 2014 pentru o cantitate de circa 17 TWh, ceea ce reprezinta cam 30% din consum. Mai mult, in 2013 au fost negociate 130 de contracte cu termen de peste un an si sunt angajate alte peste 40 de contracte, dupa 2015. La toate acestea se adauga alte contracte pe termen lung, incheiate chiar zilele acestea, indeosebi de producatorii de energie regenerabila, unele cu valabilitate pana in 2020. Semn ca piata isi face treaba, nu-i asa?

Revenind la pozitia AFEER, respectiv a marilor furnizori de energie electrica, trebuie sa spunem ca acestia continua sa afirme ca riscurile pentru producatori si furnizori au crescut, ca urmare a dificultatilor in ajustarea pozitiilor comerciale. De unde rezulta ca “aceste riscuri vor fi transferate catre consumatorul final cu impact in pretul pe care acestia il platesc.” Cu alte cuvinte, sa nu ne asteptam la o scadere a pretului, ci dimpotriva. In articolul urmator va vom arata si cum se formeaza pretul in momentul de fata si mai ales cine ia “partea leului”din acesta.

The burden of taxes unknown to consumers adds to the price of electricity even more than to the fuels, where taxation is just above 50% of the pump price. For some time now, the Romanian energy market sees apparently small prices, compared to the previous years, while the end users get significantly higher bills. The forecast for the complete liberalization of the market, from 2014 for businesses and gradually until 2018 for the households, will add only a couple of percents to the bills, as the demand is constantly dwindling, and there is a production excess. But no one asks what will happen if the trend will reverse and how relevant are the current tendencies as a benchmark for the producers, the suppliers, and the consumers.

Here we will try to show the position of the energy market players, in accordance with the Law 123/2102, and the opinion of the market operator (OPCOM, the Romanian Gas and Electricity Market Operator), as major controversies occurred recently between them. But let us get back to the price, as perceived by the consumers. The green certificates granted to the producers of renewable energy and the cogeneration tax are the main items mentioned when discussing the high price of electricity for the end users. Besides these, the state or the regulator add more taxes to the costs, and the cumulative effect is far more important than the aforementioned detrimental influences. On the other hand, the trading on OPCOM’s platform provide benchmarks who seem positive, while foretelling hard times.

A statement of the Association of the Electricity Suppliers of Romania (AFEER) asserts that the barriers set by the Energy and Gas Law led to “a migration of the transactions from long-term to very short term (more than 30% of the internal consumption, equivalent to 65% of the competitive market) which resulted in the absence of a benchmark price on the wholesale market and the impossibility of offering a fair price to the end users”.Note that this is the first time when a benchmark price and a fair price are mentioned.

What should the Romanian consumers, whether businesses or households, understand from this? That’s a good question. Reacting to AFEER’s position, Mr. Victor Ionescu, the general manager of OPCOM (the mandatory electricity trading platform for all the players in this market) says that such arguments are punctual, particular etc. and “besides the progress and the ways in which the energy exchange supports the trading, we are still anchored to non-realistic items”. “There is a discontent related to the fact that there will be differentiated tariffs starting from 2014”, adds Mr. Ionescu, referring to the commissioning of the OTC (off-exchange) trading platform. But until then, the market operator’s response to disgruntled suppliers, regarding the price, goes like this:

After the entry into force of the Law 123, specifically of the provisions who require all the players to close all the contracts exclusively on the OPCOM’s platforms, the day-ahead market (DAM) will cover at the end of this year approximately 30% of the consumption, a 33% advance compared to the previous year. What does that mean? Exactly what the suppliers are questioning, i.e. the setting of a benchmark price for electricity on the spot market, a price already considered by other energy exchanges in Europe.

On the other hand, OPCOM denies that there are no long-term contracts closed on the trading platforms, showing that contracts have been already closed for 2014, for 17 TWh, which is approximately 30% of the consumption. Moreover, in 2013, 130 contracts on terms longer than one year have been negotiated, and 40 more contracts are signed for 2015 and beyond. To all these we can add other long-term contracts signed these very days, especially by the producers of renewable energy, some of them with terms in 2020. This means the market is doing its job, isn’t it?

Returning to AFEER’s position, i.e. to the point of view of the big electricity suppliers, we must add that they keep claiming that the producers and the suppliers are facing higher risks, due to the difficulties in adjusting their trading positions. Hence, “these risks will be transferred to the end users, impacting the prices they pay.” In other words, don’t expect price cuts – quite the contrary. Our next article will show the current price mechanism and especially who takes the lion’s share of it.