Liberalizarea pietei gazelor naturale, ba se amana, ba se grabeste…Gas Market Liberalization: Slowed Down One Day, Rushed the Other

La inceput a fost spaima. Procesul de dereglementare a pietelor de gaze si energie impus Romaniei de catre Comisia Europeana, pe baza unor acorduri de comun acceptate, a fost interpretat ca o bomba reala pentru economia romaneasca si, in speta, pentru consumatorii autohtoni. In ecuatia pret reglementat-pret concurential, Autoritatea Nationala de Reglementare in Domeniul Energiei (ANRE) urmeaza sa joace rolul de arbitru, cel putin pana la finalul etapei de liberalizare, sfarsitul lui 2014 pentru consumatorii persoane juridice si sfarsitul lui 2017 pentru consumatorii persoane fizice. Socul liberalizarii era tradus printr-o crestere abrupta a preturilor, care urmau a fi temperate prin decizii ale Autoritatii, strict legate de evolutia celor doua piete si aproape exclusiv pentru consumatorii casnici.

Dupa spaima a urmat confuzia si speranta ca “dracul nu e atat de negru” pe cat par a spune autoritatile. S-a solicitat, din partea marilor consumatori, o amanare a liberalizarii pietei cu cel putin un an, in domeniul gazelor. Autoritatea de reglementare si Departamentul pentru Energie au raspuns, in prima faza, pozitiv acestei solicitari, sub pretextul ca Acordul cu Fondul Monetar si Comisia Europeana ar permite acest lucru, in functie de cotatiile internationale ale gazelor naturale de import. Astfel, daca pretul gazelor importate depaseste pragul de 500 dolari/1000 mc, amanarea liberalizarii poate deveni realitate. In nici un caz insa, nu s-a vorbit de o accelerare a procesului de dereglementare, in situatia in care pretul gazelor de import va ramane la o valoare de sub 400 de dolari/1000 mc.

Si iata ca minunea s-a intamplat. In plina iarna, gazele cumparate de la rusi nu depasesc nivelul de 380 dolari/1000 mc, motiv pentru care presedintele ANRE, Niculae Havrilet declara ieri ca “avand in vedere preturile actuale si estimarile pentru la vara, exista posiblitatea sa reinterpretam pasii de liberalizare. Adica, sa liberalizam mai repede pretul gazelor pentru industrie”. Suna frumos, numai ca pentru orice companie serioasa care activeaza in Romania (cu capital autohton sau cu capital strain) aceasta declaratie inseamna o rasturnare totala a business planului pe termen scurt si mediu. Or, cu asta nu e de glumit.

Confuzia poate naste o noua confuzie, caci, in cele doua luni de iarna care ne-au mai ramas se mai pot intampla multe, inclusiv o crestere spectaculoasa a pretului gazelor din import legat si de cresterea cererii pe piata europeana. Si atunci ce facem, ne intoarcem cu declaratiile si spunem ca putem avea in vedere o prelungire a termenului de liberalizare? Cum isi ajusteaza companiile, in acest caz, business planurile? Ce sa inteleaga din aceasta ecuatie a declaratiilor la ceas de seara companiile producatoare, traderii sau consumatorii?

Piata libera este sensibila la orice zvon, cu atat mai mult la declaratiile unor oficiali, care se schimba de la trimestru la trimestru. In folclor exista o expresie: “gura bate f…”. Pentru mediul de afaceri aceast mod de lucru este catastrofal. Masoara de zece ori inainte sa tai odata, ar trebui sa fie deviza dupa care ANRE ar judece lucrurile. Altfel, orice business plan este pierdere de vreme.

Rolul ANRE nu este acela de a face politici sociale, ci acela de arbitru corect pe doua piete vitale pentru economie, concurentiale si transparente, asa cum apare scris in orice decizie luata de Autoritate. Pe fondul unui consum redus de gaze, cererea a fost asigurata in proportie de peste 80% din productia interna. O situatie conjuncturala si ANRE stie acest lucru. Numai ca, judecatile de valoare nu se emit de azi pe maine, ci pe un termen mult mai lung. Pe acest considerent ar trebui urmarita cererea la nivelul Uniunii Europene si la sursa ei de aprovizionare majora: Gazprom, care este si sursa de import a Romaniei.

Concret, exporturile Gazprom catre piata europeana au crescut in 2013 cu 16%, cel mai ridicat nivel dupa 2008, anul declansarii crizei economice. Romania va deveni parte a pietei regionale europene in 2017. De ce sa amagim consumatorii, industriali sau casnici, pentru o simpla situatie de conjunctura care poate dura cateva luni, cel mult un an? In the beginning there was the fear. The gas and energy market deregulation prescribed to Romania by the European Commission, based on bilateral agreements, was interpreted as a bomb for the Romanian economy, and especially for the consumers. The Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) was to act as a referee in the regulated price – competitive price game, at least until the end of the liberalization stage, at the end of 2014 for corporate consumers, and of 2017 for the household consumers. The shock of liberalization was expected to make the prices skyrocket, and the ANRE was to slow the process through decisions closely related to the evolution of the two markets, almost exclusively for the households.

After the fear came the confusion and the hope that “the devil is not so black as he is painted” by the authorities. The big consumers requested a delay of the liberalization by at least one years for the gas. The ANRE and the Energy Department agreed at first, alleging that the Agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission allows it, depending on international quotations of imported natural gas. Thus, should the price of imported gas exceed 500 $/1000 cubic meters, the liberalization could actually be postponed. But there was absolutely no mention of an acceleration of the deregulation, should the price of gas stay below 400 $/1000 cubic meters.

And here’s the miracle coming true. In the middle of the winter, gas bought from Russia is not more expensive than 380 $/1000 cubic meters; a reason for ANRE’s president, Mr. Nicolae Havrilet, to declare on Monday that “considering the current prices and the estimates for next summer, there is a possibility of reinterpreting the liberalization steps. That is, of a faster liberalization of the gas price for the industry.” It sounds good, but for any serious company operating in Romania (either local of foreign), this declaration nullifies the short and medium-term business plans. That’s a very serious matter.

One confusion can lead to another, as in the two remaining winter months many things can happen, including a spectacular comeback of the price of imported gas, in connection with increasing demand on the European market. And then, what? About-face, and declare that we can consider a delay of the liberalization deadline? How would the companies adjust their business plans? What can the producers, the traders, or the consumers make out of such prime time announcements?

The free market reacts to any rumor, and all the more so to official statements changing each quarter. There’s this saying, ‘put your money where your mouth is.’ This working style is catastrophic for the business; the ANRE should measure twice before cutting once. Otherwise, any business plan becomes a waste of time.

The ANRE’s purpose is not to father social policies, but to correctly arbitrate to markets vital for the economy, competitive and transparent, as phrased in all the Authority’s decisions. In the context of low gas consumption, the 80% of the demand was covered by the domestic production. That’s temporary and the ANRE knows it. On the other hand, evaluations are not issued on short term, only on much longer periods. Therefore, the demand at European Union scale should be monitored, and the major supply source: Gazprom, who is also the source for Romania’s imports.

In figure terms, Gazprom’s exports on the European market have increased in 2013 by 16%, to the highest level since 2008, when the economic crisis hit. Romania will become a part of the European regional market in 2017. Why delude the consumers, whether industrial or households, for a mere episode who can last a couple of months, one year at most?