Ne promit chinezii marea cu sarea, ori nu intelegem noi ce vor?Is China Promising the Moon, or Are We Getting It Wrong?

Fara a avea intentia de a fi malitiosi, promisiunile chinezilor fata de investitiile masive in sectorul energetic romanesc trebuiesc privite cu foarte multa atentie, ca sa nu-i spunem retinere. La Forumul Economic si Comercial China-Europa Centrala si de Est s-a vorbit despre investitii totale in Romania, in valoare de 8,5 miliarde de euro, ale companiilor chineze, dintre care numai in sectorul energetic s-ar duce vreo cinci miliarde de euro. Guvernantii nostri nu inceteaza “sa se dea pe spate” in urma acestor promisiuni, care ne-ar transforma in adevarati tigri ai Balcanilor.

Expansiunea chinezilor inspre Europa este, intr-adevar, un lucru real, de necontestat. De aici insa si pana a realiza care sunt beneficiile noastre directe e cale lunga. “China este un gigant adormit. Atunci cand ea se trezește, ea va zgudui lumea (China is a sleeping giant. When she awakes, she will shake the world)”, spunea marele Napoleon. Sa vedem cat ne poate zgudui pe noi China, cu aceste asa zise proiecte majore de investitii, care, atentie, nu sunt o noutate. Ne vom referi exclusiv la sectorul energetic, pentru care au fost semnate vreo cinci intelegeri-memorandumuri, ce depasesc valoarea de cinci miliarde de euro.

Primul si cel mai important angajament se refera la constructia reactoarelor 3 si 4 ale Centralei nuclearelectrice de la Cernavoda. Energy-Center a aratat in exclusivitate ca de acest proiect sunt interesate anumite companii din Rusia, care pentru a intra in hora pun la inaintare companii din Coreea de Sud si din China, marea problema fiind legata de tehnologia de tip CANDU. Una peste alta, doar proiectul Cernavoda ar costa peste 7 miliarde de euro. Interesant este insa faptul ca “proiectul reactoarelor 3 si 4 ar putea sa nu genereze un flux de numerar suficient pentru a fi bancabil, iar rata interna de rentabilitate, de 11,3%, este mai mica decat cea ceruta de investitorii privati pentru acest proiect, se arata in Planul de Administrare al Nuclearelectrica”. Sa nu stie chinezii acest lucru?

In continuare se vorbeste despre centrala de pompaj de la Tarnita, pe care chinezii ar vrea sa o realizeze, dar care ar mai costa si ea vreo doua miliarde de euro. Pentru a putea functiona cu patru grupuri energetice, centrala nucleara de la Cernavoda are nevoie obligatoriu de o hidrocentrala cu acumulare prin pompaj pentru echilibru din sistemul energetic, ce ar urma sa fie construita la Tarnita-Lapustesti. Asemenea instalatii sunt capabile sa acumuleze energia disponibila in afara orelor de varf de sarcina si pe care sa o restituie in orele de varf ale sistemului energetic.

Sapte miliarde de euro de la Cernavoda cu doua miliarde de euro de la Tarnita -Lapustesti egal: noua miliarde de euro, la care mai adaugam cel putin un miliard de euro pentru grupuri noi de la Rovinari si Mintia si ajungem la dublul sumei pe care chinezii au declarat ca vor s-o investeasca in sistemul energetic romanesc. Nu intram acum in amanunte, dar nu putem sa nu ne intrebam, diferenta de cinci miliarde de euro, sau chiar mai mult, cine o plateste?

Daca Romania ar fi avut o strategie energetica poate am fi gasit si raspunsul. Numai ca, strategia energetica va fi elaborata in cel mai bun caz in anul 2014, de catre niste “specialisti” straini, care ar putea, sau nu ar putea tine seama de promisiunile chinezesti de astazi. Complicat, mai ales ca Romania are deja un excedent de energie cu care nu prea stie ce sa faca.

Dupa ce entuziasmul generat de prezenta primului ministru chinez in Romania va trece, promitem sa revenim cu analize obiective fata de ceea ce s-a discutat la acest mare forum de afaceri, in speta la problemele sectorului energetic romanesc. O sa vi se para ciudat, dar chinezii mai mult complica decat simplifica aceste probleme.

Foto: AgerpresNo sarcasm intended, but China’s promises of massive investments in the Romanian energy industry must be considered very carefully, if not with reservations. Within the China – Central and Eastern Europe Economic and Commercial Summit there were mentions of Chinese companies’ investments in Romania amounting to €8.5bn, out of which 5 billions would be only for the energy industry. Romanian rulers seem astonished by such promises, which would make Romania a ‘tiger of the Balkans’.

China’s expansion towards Europe is real, it’s an undisputable truth. Nevertheless, it’s hard to infer what are Romania’s direct benefits out of this process. “China is a sleeping giant. When she wakes it will shake the world”, purportedly said the great Napoleon. Let’s see how China will shake Romania with these so-called major investment projects – which, by the way, are not new. We will refer only to the energy industry, for which about five memorandums were signed, for more than €5bn.

The first and most important commitment is related to the construction of reactors 3 and 4 of the nuclear power plant of Cernavoda. Energy-Center was the only media to reveal that there are Russian companies interested in this project, and that they are using South Korean and Chinese companies as facades, the sensitive issue being the CANDU technology. Altogether, the Cernavoda project alone would need more than €7bn. It’s interesting, however, that “the project of reactors 3 and 4 might not generate a sufficient cash flow to be bankable, and the internal rate of return of 11.3% is below the threshold requested by the private investors for this project”, according to Nuclearelectrica’s Management Plan. Aren’t the Chinese aware of that?

Then there were mentions of the pumping station of Tarnita, to be built by the Chinese, and who would cost another couple of billions of euros. To work with for units, the nuclear plant of Cernavoda absolutely needs a hydro plant with pumped storage, for balancing the grid; it should be built at Tarnita-Lapustesti. Such plants can store the energy available outside the peaks and return it during the peaks of power consumption.

Seven billions at Cernavoda plus two billions at Tarnita-Lapustesti makes nine billion euros, and we must add at least one billion for new units at Rovinari and Mintia, which results in the double of the amount of the investments in the Romanian energy industry announced by China. Without getting into the details, we cannot avoid asking who is bringing the difference of more than five billion euros?

If Romania had an energy strategy, there could be an answer. But the energy strategy will be drafted at the earliest in 2014, by foreign ‘experts’ who might or might not take into account China’s promises of today. It’s complicated, and moreover, Romania already has an available excess of energy and doesn’t quite know how to use it.

After the enthusiasm generated by the Chinese prime minister’s visit will cool down, we promise to return with objective analyses of the matters discussed at this great business forum, namely to the issues of the Romanian energy industry. It might seem strange, but the Chinese are rather part of the problem than part of the solution.

Photo: Agerpres