O liniste suspecta pe piata de energie si gaze, in prag de iarnaDubious Quiet on the Gas and Energy Market, at the Onset of Winter

Parca niciodata Romania nu a fost mai bine pregatita din punct de vedere energetic pentru trecerea iernii. Pretul curentului electric ramane la un nivel sustenabil si nu se anticipeaza o crestere mai mare de 1%, in ciuda trecerii la cea de-a treia etapa a dereglementarii, care inseamna o deschidere a pietei cu inca 20%, din 2014. Pretul gazelor naturale, tot pentru consumatorii casnici, va avea si el o crestere nesemnificativa, caci 95% din depozite sunt asigurate cu gaze din productia interna. Pe de alta parte, pe fondul unei cereri din ce in ce mai scazute pe piata europeana, Gazprom, respectiv importatorii, nu prea mai au loc de a exercita presiuni pe pret, asa cum s-a intamplat in iernile trecute.

Totu-i in roz, ne dau asigurari si reprezentantii Agentiei Nationale de Reglementare in Domeniul Energiei (ANRE), care ne explica faptul ca mixul energetic din Romania este invidiat de catre multe tari europene, iar in baza lui Sistemul Energetic Romanesc este pregatit sa faca fata oricarei provocari. Mai mult, in aceste conditii, Romania reuseste, de circa o luna de zile, sa exporte intre 700 si 900 MW energie electrica, semn ca sectorul de generare primeste o gura de oxigen mai mult decat necesara. De aici si pana la continuarea investitiiilor in acest domeniu, mai ales cu aport chinezesc, nu mai e decat un pas.

Trebuie sa recunoastem ca toate aceste informatii au o baza reala si sunt benefice pentru consumatorii romani, care, daca nu vor avea parte de o ieftinire a utilitatilor, macar nu vor plati cu mult mai mult fata de iarna trecuta. Daca la energie electrica si gaze naturale avem insa niste previziuni optimiste, la energie termica, acolo unde factura devine din ce in ce mai insuportabila, lucrurile stau cu totul altfel.

Am aflat in premiera de la vicepresedintele ANRE, Emil Calota, ca taxa de cogenerare, care reprezinta in jur de 5% din costul final al facturii de energie la consumatori, aduna in jur de 250-300 de milioane de euro anual. Iar, aceasta taxa suportata de catre toti consumatorii din Romania, se aplica din 2010 si, conform legii, se va incasa pe o perioada de 11 ani. Concret, noi platim, sau vom plati, pentru cogenerarea de inalta eficienta peste 3 miliarde de euro, indiferent ca suntem sau nu suntem abonati la sistemul centralizat de incalzire. Unde se duc acesti bani este o intrebare pe care ne-o punem sistematic de ceva vreme, in conditiile in care investitiile in capacitatile de cogenerare de inalta eficienta nu se prea vad. Caci, daca s-ar vedea, nu ar trebui sa avem emotii in fiecare iarna vizavi de cresterea costurilor cu caldura, cum se intampla in momentul de fata.

Taxa de cogenerare reprezinta si un obstacol major in calea exporturilor de energie ale Romaniei, pentru simplul motiv ca incarca costurile astfel incat ne este tot mai greu sa fim competitivi pe pietele externe. Se pare ca sa cauta solutii si in acest sens, mai ales ca din 2014 vom intra inevitabil intr-o piata regionala care ne poate aduce si avantaje dar si dezavantaje. Si pentru ca tot am adus vorba despre taxa de cogenerare, iata ca atat ANRE, cat si guvernul s-au gandit ca a venit vremea ca cele 37 de centrale care furnizeaza agent termic pentru marile orase si sunt clasificate ca centrale de inalta cogenerare sa fie luate la puricat. La fel ca in cazul energiilor regenerabile exista deja suspiciunea ca schema de compensare a dus la situatii de supracompensare, iar in domeniul retehnologizarii nu s-a intamplat aproape nimic.

Ca sa revenim la afirmatia de mai sus, conform careia vom avea o iarna linistita, se impune sa precizam ca s-ar putea sa fie si ultima in acest sens. Din 2014 lucrurile se vor schimba radical. In primul rand, contributia pe cogenerare va fi redusa clar, existand si un proiect de hotarare de guvern in acest sens. Inevitabil, costurile de productie ale celor mai multe centrale termice care beneficiaza de schema de sprijin vor deveni vizibile. Gunoiul de sub pres va iesi la suprafata.

Pana atunci insa, sa ne bucuram de linistea de dinaintea unei posibile mari furtuni. Deocamdata, e bine.Romania never seemed better prepared for the winter, in energy terms. The price of electricity is still reasonable and no rise by more than 1% is expected, despite the beginning of the third stage of the deregulation, meaning a further opening of the market by 20% in 2014. The price of natural gas, also for the households, will see an equally minor advance, as 95% of the deposits are secured from the internal production. On the other hand, in the context of an ever lower demand on the European market, Gazprom and the importers can hardly force the price up, as they did last winters.

Everything is fine, the representatives of the ANRE (Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority) are also assuring; they explain that Romania’s energy mix is envied by many European countries, and based on it, the energy industry is ready for any challenge. Moreover, in the given circumstances Romania manages, for about one month now, to export between 700 and 900 MW of electricity, a sign that the generation sector gets a much needed breath of oxygen. It’s a little step from here to continuing the investments in this field, especially with China’s contribution.

We must admit there’s truth in this information, and it’s good for Romanian consumers who, while not seeing see lower prices for utilities, will at least not be charged more than last winter. But while forecasts are optimistic for electricity and gas, things are completely different for the heating, where the bills are more and more unreasonable.

The vice president of the ANRE, Mr. Emil Calota, disclosed for the first time the yearly amount of the cogeneration tax, equivalent to approximately 5% of the energy bills: it’s €250-300mn. This tax is paid by all the Romanian consumers since 2010, and the law provides its continuation for 11 years. Explicitly, we pay – or will pay – more than €3bn for the high-efficiency cogeneration, whether we have district heating or not. Where do all these money go? It’s a question we come up with systematically for some time now, as investments in the high-efficiency cogeneration utilities are hardly visible. Were they significant, we shouldn’t be worried each winter by the costs of heating, as we still do.

The cogeneration tax is also a major hurdle for Romania’s energy exports, for the simple reason that it adds to the costs, making it harder to be competitive on the international markets. Apparently, solutions are sought, especially as from 2014 Romania will inevitably enter a regional market, which can bring pluses, but also minuses. And since we mentioned the cogeneration tax, note that both the ANRE and the government thought that it’s time to take a much closer look to the 37 thermal power plants heating the major cities and classified as highly efficient in terms of cogeneration. Like for the renewable energy, there’s already a suspicion about the subsidies scheme leading to overcompensations, while little has been done to overhaul the facilities.

Returning to the promise of a quiet winter, we must say that it might be the last so. Things will dramatically change in 2014. First, the cogeneration contribution will be cut down; there’s already a government decision draft for this. Inevitably, the production costs of most of the thermal power plants receiving subsidies will become transparent. The dirt swept under the carpet will come out.

Until then, let’s enjoy the calm before an eventual superstorm. So far, so good.